Student Sorting and Bias in Value Added Estimation: Selection on Observables and Unobservables
Non-random assignment of students to teachers can bias value added estimates of teachers’ causal effects. Rothstein (2008) shows that typical value added models indicate large counter-factual effects of 5th grade teachers on students’ 4th grade learning, implying that assignments do not satisfy the imposed assumptions. This paper quantifies the resulting biases in estimates of 5th grade teachers’ causal effects from several value added models, under varying assumptions about the assignment process. Under selection on observables, models for gain scores without controls or with only a single lagged score control are subject to important bias, but models with controls for the full test score history are nearly free of bias. I consider several scenarios for selection on unobservables, using the across-classroom variance of observed variables to calibrate each. Results indicate that even well-controlled models may be substantially biased, with the magnitude of the bias depending on the amount of information available for use in classroom assignments.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (609) 258-5765
Fax: (609) 258-5398
Web page: http://www.princeton.edu/~ceps/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles T. Clotfelter & Helen F. Ladd & Jacob L. Vigdor, 2006.
"Teacher-Student Matching and the Assessment of Teacher Effectiveness,"
NBER Working Papers
11936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles T. Clotfelter & Helen F. Ladd & Jacob L. Vigdor, 2006. "Teacher-Student Matching and the Assessment of Teacher Effectiveness," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(4).
- Donald Boyd & Hamilton Lankford & Susanna Loeb & Jonah Rockoff & James Wyckoff, 2008.
"The Narrowing Gap in New York City Teacher Qualifications and its Implications for Student Achievement in High-Poverty Schools,"
NBER Working Papers
14021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donald Boyd & Hamilton Lankford & Susanna Loeb & Jonah Rockoff & James Wyckoff, 2008. "The narrowing gap in New York City teacher qualifications and its implications for student achievement in high-poverty schools," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 793-818.
- Daniel Aaronson & Lisa Barrow & William Sander, 2007.
"Teachers and Student Achievement in the Chicago Public High Schools,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 25, pages 95-135.
- Daniel Aaronson & Lisa Barrow & William Sander, 2002. "Teachers and student achievement in the Chicago public high schools," Working Paper Series WP-02-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Jesse Rothstein, 2010.
"Teacher Quality in Educational Production: Tracking, Decay, and Student Achievement,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 175-214, February.
- Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Teacher Quality in Educational Production: Tracking, Decay, and Student Achievement," NBER Working Papers 14442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven G. Rivkin & Eric A. Hanushek & John F. Kain, 2005.
"Teachers, Schools, and Academic Achievement,"
Econometric Society, vol. 73(2), pages 417-458, 03.
- Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2000.
"Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools,"
NBER Working Papers
7831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
- Thomas J. Kane & Douglas O. Staiger, 2008. "Estimating Teacher Impacts on Student Achievement: An Experimental Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 14607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brian A. Jacob & Lars Lefgren, 2008. "Can Principals Identify Effective Teachers? Evidence on Subjective Performance Evaluation in Education," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26, pages 101-136.
- Sass, Tim R. & Semykina, Anastasia & Harris, Douglas N., 2014. "Value-added models and the measurement of teacher productivity," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 9-23.
- Cory Koedel & Julian Betts, 2007. "Re-Examining the Role of Teacher Quality In the Educational Production Function," Working Papers 0708, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:170rothstein. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Long)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.