Improving Monetary Policy Models
If macroeconomic models are to be useful in policy-making, where uncertainty is pervasive, the models must be treated as probability models, whether formally or informally. Use of explicit probability models allows us to learn systematically from past mistakes, to integrate model-based uncertainty with uncertain subjective judgment, and to bind data-bassed forecasting together with theory-based projection of policy effects. Yet in the last few decades policy models at central banks have steadily shed any claims to being believable probability models of the data to which they are fit. Here we describe the current state of policy modeling, suggest some reasons why we have reached this state, and assess some promising directions for future progress.
|Date of creation:||May 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (609) 258-5765
Fax: (609) 258-5398
Web page: http://www.princeton.edu/~ceps/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002.
"Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs,"
2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Pedro Alvarez-Lois & Richard Harrison & Laura Piscitelli & Alasdair Scott, 2005. "Taking DSGE models to the policy environment," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008.
"Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
- Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Working Paper 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Christopher A. Sims & Harald Uhlig, 1988.
"Understanding unit rooters: a helicopter tour,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Doepke, Matthias & Schneider, Martin, 2005.
"Real Effects of Inflation Through the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5167, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Real effects of inflation through the redistribution of nominal wealth," Staff Report 355, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sims, Christopher A, 2001.
"Fiscal Consequences for Mexico of Adopting the Dollar,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 597-616, May.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Fiscal consequences for Mexico of adopting the dollar," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 597-625.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2004. "Econometrics for Policy Analysis: Progress and Regress," De Economist, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 167-175, 06.
- Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003.
"An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
- Rochelle Edge & Michael Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:128sims. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Long)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.