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Riding the Wave: Monetary Responses to Aid Surges in Low-Income Countries

  • Christopher Adam

We focus on the management of highly persistent shocks to aid flows, including HIPC or MDG-related increases in net flows, in the presence of currency substitution by the domestic private sector. Such shocks have beneficient long-run effects, but when currency substitution is high they can produce dramatic macroeconomic management problems in the short run. What is the appropriate mix of money and exchange rate targeting in such cases, and the role of temporary sterilization? We analyze these and related issues in an intertemporal optimizing model that allows a portion of aid to be devoted to reducing the government`s seigniorage requirement. Our results argue that a managed float, with little or no sterilization of increases in the monetary base, is the most attractive approach.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number WPS/2006-04.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/2006-04
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 13412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
  5. Christopher Adam & David Bevan, 2003. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2003-02, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Design in Low-Income Countries," Working Papers id:3162, eSocialSciences.
  8. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
  9. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
  10. C. L. Ramirez-Rojas, 1985. "Currency Substitution in Argentina, Mexico, and Uruguay (Substitution de monnaie en Argentine, au Mexique et en Uruguay) (Sustitución de moneda en Argentina, México y Uruguay)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 629-667, December.
  11. Blundell, Richard, 1988. "Consumer Behaviour: Theory and Empirical Evidence--a Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 16-65, March.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1993. "Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-024, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. repec:bep:maccon:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1133-1133 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Bulir, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2001. "How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  16. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521296762 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Asea, Patrick K & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1996. "Le Prix de l'Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 231-71, October.
  18. Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Emanuele Baldacci & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/77, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Krishna Srinivasan & Erich Spitäller & M. Braulke & Christian B. Mulder & Hisanobu Shishido & Kenneth M. Miranda & John Dodsworth & Keon Lee, 1996. "Vietnam; Transition to a Market Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 135, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie & Catherine Pattillo, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 464-490, 08.
  21. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, 07.
  22. Alfonso Novales & Emilio Dominguez & Javier J. Perez & Jesus Ruiz, 1998. "Solving Non-linear Rational Expectations Models By Eigenvalue-Eigenvector Decompositions," QM&RBC Codes 124, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
  23. Catherine A. Pattillo & Stephen A. O'Connell & Christopher Adam & Edward F. Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/216, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Burnside, Craig & Fanizza, Domenico, 2001. "Hiccups for HIPCs?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  25. David Fielding, 1994. "Money Demand in Four African Countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 3-37, May.
  26. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Fedderke, J. W. & Liu, W., 2002. "Modelling the determinants of capital flows and capital flight: with an application to South African data from 1960 to 1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-444, May.
  28. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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