IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: A Dynamic Structural Factor Model Approach

  • Romain Houssa

We analyse the costs of a monetary union in West Africa by means of asymmetric aggegate demand and aggregate supply shocks. Previous studies have estimated the shocks with the VAR model. We discuss the limits of this approach and apply a new technique based on the dynamic factor model. The results suggest the presence of economic costs for a monetary union in West Africa because aggregate supply shocks are poorly correlated or asymmetric across these countries. Aggregate demand shocks are more positively or less negatively correlated between West African countries. These comclusions imply some policy recommendations for the monetary union project in West Africa.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2004-17text.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number WPS/2004-17.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/2004-17
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Maylis Coupet, 2005. "On the Adequacy of Monetary Arrangements in Sub-Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 349-373, 03.
  2. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
  3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  4. Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2001. "Coincident and leading indicators for the Euro area," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10137, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  6. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Chiara Bentivogli & Patrizio Pagano, 1999. "Regional Disparities and Labour Mobility: the Euro-11 versus the USA," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 13(3), pages 737-760, 09.
  11. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2000. "Modeling Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone," Discussion Papers in Economics 00/7, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  13. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  14. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July.
  16. David Hendry & Jurgen Doornik, 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Series Working Papers 4, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Pattillo, Catherine, 2004. "Terms of trade shocks in Africa: are they short-lived or long-lived?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 727-744, April.
  18. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Foroutan, Faezeh & Pritchett, Lant, 1993. "Intra-sub-Saharan African Trade: Is It Too Little?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 2(1), pages 74-105, May.
  20. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the Euro area and the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  21. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
  22. Tamim Bayoumi & Jonathan David Ostry, 1995. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa; Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," IMF Working Papers 95/142, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  24. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
  26. Catherine A. Pattillo & Paul R. Masson, 2001. "Monetary Union in West Africa (ECOWAS)," IMF Occasional Papers 204, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "The generalised dynamic factor model: consistency and rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10133, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  28. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  29. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "VAR analysis, nonfundamental representations, blaschke matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 307-325, July.
  31. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  32. Tenreyro, Silvana & Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," Scholarly Articles 4553033, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  34. Etienne B. Yehoue, 2005. "On the Pattern of Currency Blocs in Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/45, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  36. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
  37. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge E. Roldós & Peter Wickham, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 132-160, March.
  38. Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
  39. Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Fiscal Flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for Monetary Union in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  41. Rama, Martin, 1998. "Wage misalignment in CFA countries: are labor market policies to blame?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1873, The World Bank.
  42. Teal, Francis, 2000. "Real wages and the demand for skilled and unskilled male labour in Ghana's manufacturing sector: 1991-1995," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 447-461, April.
  43. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  44. Paul R. Masson & Xavier Debrun & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2002. "Monetary Union in West Africa; Who Might Gain, Who Might Lose, and Why?," IMF Working Papers 02/226, International Monetary Fund.
  45. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  46. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  47. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  48. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2003. "Economic Integration in West Africa: Does the CFA Make a Difference?," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/8, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  50. Aksoy, Yunus & De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 2002. "Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 443-469, March.
  51. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  52. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
  53. Andrew Atkeson & Tamim Bayoumi, 1993. "Do private capital markets insure regional risk? Evidence from the United States and Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 303-324, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/2004-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Birds)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.