Transient seasonal and chronic poverty of peasants: evidence from Rwanda
Using panel data from Rwanda, we estimate seasonal transient and chronic poverty indices, for different poverty line, poverty indicators, equivalence scale, and with and without the corrections for price variability and for the sampling scheme. We also estimate sampling standard errors for the poverty indices. The worse poverty crises occur after the dry season at the end of the year. Most of the severity of poverty comes from the seasonal transient component of annual poverty, while the seasonal component of the incidence of poverty is much smaller. Thus, the actual differences of the severity of poverty either between developing and industrial countries or between rural and urban areas in LDCs, may be much worse than what is shown by usual chronic annual poverty measures or by measures of seasonal incidence of poverty. The importance of the transient component suggests a need for income stabilisation policy. However, the contribution of the global transient seasonal poverty is important for household clustered around the poverty line but low for the poorest part of the chronically poor. Thus, policies fighting seasonal transient poverty are likely to concern the moderately poor rather than the very poor, as compared with policies against chronic poverty, which affect the very poor. The probability transition analysis across seasonal living standard distributions shows that mobility across quintiles is always very strong. The poverty crisis in the last season is more the result of many peasants falling into poverty than a decrease in the flow out of poverty. A safety net policy aimed at the poor and the non-poor at this period would then be appropriate. We estimate equations of quantiles for household chronic and transient seasonal poverty. The agricultural choices of peasants are found to affect differently the two components of annual poverty that could therefore be addressed by a combination of policies specific to each component.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 1997|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ|
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ravi Kanbur, S. M. & Stromberg, Jan-Olov, 1988. "Income transitions and income distribution dominance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 408-416, August.
- Cowell, Frank A. & Victoria-Feser, Maria-Pia, 1996. "Poverty measurement with contaminated data: A robust approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1761-1771, December.
- Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
- Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "The impact on poverty of food pricing reforms: A welfare analysis for Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-299.
- Chiappori, P.A., 1989.
"Collective Labour Supply and Welfare,"
DELTA Working Papers
89-07, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
- Deaton, Angus S & Ruiz-Castillo, Javier & Thomas, Duncan, 1989. "The Influence of Household Composition on Household Expenditure Patterns: Theory and Spanish Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 179-200, February.
- Coulombe, Harold & Mckay, Andrew, 1996. "Modeling determinants of poverty in Mauritania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1015-1031, June.
- Foster, James E. & Shorrocks, Anthony F., 1988. "Inequality and poverty orderings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 654-661, March.
- Ravallion, Martin, 1988. "Expected Poverty under Risk-Induced Welfare Variability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1171-82, December.
- Richard V. Burkhauser & Timothy M. Smeeding & Joachim Merz, 1994.
"Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales,"
12, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
- Burkhauser, Richard V & Smeeding, Timothy M & Merz, Joachim, 1996. "Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(4), pages 381-400, December.
- Burkhauser, Richard V. & Smeeding, Timothy M. & Merz, Joachim, 1994. "Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," MPRA Paper 16295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Burkhauser, Richard V. & Smeeding, Timothy M. & Merz, Joachim, 1994. "Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," MPRA Paper 7229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Atkinson, A B, 1987. "On the Measurement of Poverty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 749-64, July.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
- John Muellbauer, 1974. "Inequality Measures, Prices and Household Composition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 493-504.
- Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
- Cinar, E. Mine, 1987. "The sensitivity of extended linear expenditure system household scales to income declaration errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 361-372, March.
- Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
- de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-417, November.
- Atkinson, Anthony B, 1991. "Comparing Poverty Rates Internationally: Lessons from Recent Studies in Developed Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 5(1), pages 3-21, January.
- Slesnick, Daniel T, 1993. "Gaining Ground: Poverty in the Postwar United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 1-38, February.
- Ravallion, Martin, 1996.
"Issues in Measuring and Modelling Poverty,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1328-43, September.
- von Braun, Joachim & Haen, Hartwig de & Blanken, Juergen, 1991. "Commercialization of agriculture under population pressure: effects on production, and nutrition in Rwanda," Research reports 85, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Chaudhuri, Shubham & Ravallion, Martin, 1994. "How well do static indicators identify the chronically poor?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 367-394, March.
- Ruggles, Patricia & Williams, Roberton, 1989. "Longitudinal Measures of Poverty: Accounting for Income and Assets over Time," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 35(3), pages 225-43, September.
- Alwang, Jeffrey & Siegel, Paul B. & Jorgensen, Steen L., 1996. "Seeking guidelines for poverty reduction in rural Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1711-1723, November.
- Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1996. "On Using Linear Regressions in Welfare Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 478-86, October.
- Clark, Stephen & Hemming, Richard & Ulph, David, 1981. "On Indices for the Measurement of Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 515-26, June.
- Joan R. Rodgers & John L. Rodgers, 1993. "Chronic Poverty in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 28(1), pages 25-54.
- Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
- Muellbauer, John, 1980. "The Estimation of the Prais-Houthakker Model of Equivalence Scales," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 153-76, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:wps/1997-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Birds)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.