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The Trade Consequences of Pricey Oil

  • Pierre-Louis Vezina
  • David von Below

This paper examines the trade and trade-induced welfare effects of high oil prices. Using a gravity model of trade we find that the distance elasticity of trade signif- icantly increases with the oil price. This suggests that high oil prices make trade less global. We estimate that an increase in the oil price from 100$ to 200$ would have the similar effect as imposing a world-wide import tariff between 4% and 9%, depending on the distance between countries. In turn, such higher trade costs would lower welfare by 1.8% in the average non-oil-exporting country.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number OxCarre Research Paper 115.

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Date of creation: 17 Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:oxcarre-research-paper-115
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  1. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2013. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook," CEPR Discussion Papers 9322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven, 2007. "Global price dispersion: Are prices converging or diverging?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 703-729, September.
  5. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
  6. Storeygard, Adam, 2013. "Farther on down the road : transport costs, trade and urban growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6444, The World Bank.
  7. Harrigan, James, 2010. "Airplanes and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 181-194, November.
  8. Daniel Mirza & Habib Zitouna, 2009. "Oil Prices, Geography and Endogenous Regionalism: Too Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing," Working Papers 2009-26, CEPII research center.
  9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  10. Joern Kleinert & Julia Spies, 2011. "Endogenous Transport Costs in International Trade," IAW Discussion Papers 74, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
  11. Cristea, Anca & Hummels, David & Puzzello, Laura & Avetisyan, Misak, 2013. "Trade and the greenhouse gas emissions from international freight transport," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 153-173.
  12. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2012. "Putting Ricardo to Work," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 65-90, Spring.
  13. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
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