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The impact of North-South and South-South trade agreements on bilateral trade

  • Alberto Behar

Free trade agreements (FTAs) lead to a rise in bilateral trade even if the signatories include developing countries.� Furthermore, the percentage increase in bilateral trade is higher for South-South agreements than for North-South agreements.� The results are robust across a number of gravity model specifications in which we control for the endogeneity of FTAs (with bilateral fixed effects) and also take account of multilateral resistance in both estimation (with country-time fixed effects) and comparative statics (analytically).� Our analytical model shows that multilateral resistance dampens the impact of FTAs on trade by less in South-South agreements than in North-South agreements, which accentuates the difference implied by our gravity model coefficients, and that this difference gets larger as the number of signatories rises.� For example, allowing for lags and multilateral resistance, a four-country North-South agreement raises bilateral trade by 53% while the analogous South-South impact is 107%.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number CSAE WPS/2010-30.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:csae-wps/2010-30
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  1. Céline CARRERE & Jaime MELO DE, 2004. "Are Different Rules of Origin Equally Costly? Estimates from NAFTA," Working Papers 200412, CERDI.
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  5. José Anson & Olivier Cadot & Antoni Estevadeordal & Jaime de Melo & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann & Bolormaa Tumurchudur, 2005. "Rules of Origin in North-South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 501-517, 08.
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  8. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
  9. Alberto Behar & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2009. "Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance and Firm Heterogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 440, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Cies´lik, Andrzej & Hagemejer, Jan, 2009. "Assessing the Impact of the EU-sponsored Trade Liberalization in the MENA Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 343-368.
  11. Pabo Sanguinetti & Alok Bohara & Kishore Guatanabe, 2003. "Trade Diverion and Declinning Tariffs: Evidence from MERCOSUR," Department of Economics Working Papers 003, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  12. Maurice Schiff & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Regional Integration and Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15172.
  13. Lee, Jong-Wha & Shin, Kwanho, 2005. "Does Regionalism Lead to More Global Trade Integration in East Asia?," MPRA Paper 706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Are Preferential Trading Arrangements Trade-Liberalizing or Protectionist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 105-124, Fall.
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