Democracy's Achilles Heel or, How to Win an Election without Really Trying
In this paper we investigate the efficacy of illicit electoral tactics and the characteristics which make a society prone to such tactics.� We first investigate the chances of an incumbent head of government winning an election.� We find that in those elections in which illicit tactics were prevalent the chances of incumbent victory increase substantially, more than doubling the expected duration in office.� Further, illicit tactics sharply reduce the importance of good economic performance for survival in office.� We then investigate what makes a society prone to illicit electoral tactics.� Both structural conditions and institutions matter.� Societies that are small, low-income, and resource-rich have little chance of a clean election unless these conditions are offset by checks and balances such as veto points and a free press.� Aid has offsetting effects, the net effect being modest.� We show that these results are robust to different measures of the conduct of elections and to fixed effects.� Finally, we revisit the Jones-Olken result that individual leaders matter for economic performance and find that it holds only where leaders are not disciplined by well-conducted elections.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robinson, James A & Torvik, Ragnar & Verdier, Thierry, 2002.
"Political Foundations of the Resource Curse,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Leigh, 2009.
"Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 163-181, 04.
- Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
- Chauvet, Lisa & Collier, Paul, 2009.
"Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/4315, Paris Dauphine University.
- Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier, 2009. "Elections and economic policy in developing countries," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 509-550, 07.
- Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier, 2008. "Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-34, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Paul Collier & Lisa Chauvet, 2008. "Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2008-34, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier, 2008. "Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries," Working Papers DT/2008/11, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
- Tavares, Jose, 2003. "Does foreign aid corrupt?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 99-106, April.
- Sidman, Andrew H. & Mak, Maxwell & Lebo, Matthew J., 2008. "Forecasting non-incumbent presidential elections: Lessons learned from the 2000 election," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 237-258.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:csae-wps/2009-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Birds)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.