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Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification

  • John C. Bluedorn
  • Christopher Bowdler

We argue that endogenous and anticipated movements in interest rates lead to underestimates of the speed and magnitude of the exchange rate response to monetary policy. Employing the Romer and Romer (2004) exogenous monetary policy shock measure, we find that the effect of a one percentage point increase in the U.S. interest rate is up to 3 times as large and 3 times as fast as that obtained using the actual federal funds rate to identify monetary shocks. Moreover, new evidence from open economy VARs em-phasises the adjustment role of the exchange rate. U.S. prices and output respond almost twice as quickly as they do in a closed economy VAR using the Romer and Romer shock measure. There is also evidence of stronger international transmission of U.S. monetary shocks. Overall, the estimated response speeds and magnitudes are more easily reconciled with existing models than previous empirical work.

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File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2005/w18/RRFX.03.08.2005.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 2005-W18.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2005-w18
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  2. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1031-1057, 09.
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  12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2003. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," NBER Working Papers 9866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
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  18. Guender, Alfred V. & McCaw, Sharon, 2000. "The inflationary bias in a model of the open economy: a note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 173-178, August.
  19. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
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  21. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
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  24. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  25. Sarantis Kalyvitis & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 197, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  26. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 255-263, May.
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  28. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 318-34, May.
  29. S. Brock Blomberg, 2001. ""Dumb And Dumber" Explanations For Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 187-216, November.
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