IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Stochastic volatility

  • Neil Shephard

Stochastic volatility (SV) is the main concept used in the fields of financial economics and mathematical finance to deal with the endemic time-varying volatility and codependence found in financial markets. Such dependence has been known for a long time, early comments include Mandelbrot (1963) and Officer (1973). It was also clear to the founding fathers of modern continuous time finance that homogeneity was an unrealistic if convenient simplification, e.g. Black and Scholes (1972, p. 416) wrote ... there is evidence of non-stationarity in the variance. More work must be done to predict variances using the information available. Heterogeneity has deep implications for the theory and practice of financial economics and econometrics. In particular, asset pricing theory is dominated by the idea that higher rewards may be expected when we face higher risks, but these risks change through time in complicated ways. Some of the changes in the level of risk can be modelled stochastically, where the level of volatility and degree of codependence between assets is allowed to change over time. Such models allow us to explain, for example, empirically observed departures from Black-Scholes-Merton prices for options and understand why we should expect to see occasional dramatic moves in financial markets. The outline of this article is as follows. In section 2 I will trace the origins of SV and provide links with the basic models used today in the literature. In section 3 I will briefly discuss some of the innovations in the second generation of SV models. In section 4 I will briefly discuss the literature on conducting inference for SV models. In section 5 I will talk about the use of SV to price options. In section 6 I will consider the connection of SV with realised volatility. An extensive review of this literature is given in Shephard (2005).

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2005/w17/palgrave.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 2005-W17.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2005-w17
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-93, July.
  2. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24852, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April.
  4. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2001. "Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation," Economics Papers 2003-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  6. Elisa Nicolato & Emmanouil Venardos, 2003. "Option Pricing in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 445-466.
  7. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  9. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pastorello, Sergio & Patilea, Valentin & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Iterative and Recursive Estimation in Structural Nonadaptive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 449-82, October.
  11. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
  12. Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
  13. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
  14. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
  15. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  16. Andersen, Torben G & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 328-52, July.
  17. Shephard, Neil (ed.), 2005. "Stochastic Volatility: Selected Readings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257201, March.
  18. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
  19. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  20. Jun Yu, 2004. "On Leverage in a Stochastic Volatility Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 506, Econometric Society.
  21. Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
  22. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
  23. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  24. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realised covariation: high frequency covariance, regression and correlation in financial economics," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  25. Eric Renault & Nizar Touzi, 1996. "Option Hedging And Implied Volatilities In A Stochastic Volatility Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 279-302.
  26. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  27. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2005. "Variation, jumps, market frictions and high frequency data in financial econometrics," Economics Series Working Papers 240, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  28. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  29. Lan Zhang & Per A. Mykland & Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2003. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility with Noisy High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 10111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Chernov, Mikhail & Ghysels, Eric, 2000. "A study towards a unified approach to the joint estimation of objective and risk neutral measures for the purpose of options valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 407-458, June.
  31. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-417, May.
  32. Meddahi, N., 2001. "An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling," Cahiers de recherche 2001-29, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  33. Comte, F. & Renault, E., 1996. "Long Memory in Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 96.406, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  34. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  35. Johnson, Herb & Shanno, David, 1987. "Option Pricing when the Variance Is Changing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 143-151, June.
  36. Zhou, Bin, 1996. "High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
  37. Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2004. "Realized Variance and IID Market Microstructure Noise," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 526, Econometric Society.
  38. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1999. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term Structure Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 211-239, June.
  39. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
  40. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Éric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO.
  41. Stein, Elias M & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: An Analytic Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 727-52.
  42. Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348.
  43. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  44. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-53, July.
  45. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
  46. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2005. "A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach to the Estimation for Diffusion Processes from Discrete Observations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1523, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  47. Hoffmann, Marc, 2002. "Rate of convergence for parametric estimation in a stochastic volatility model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 147-170, January.
  48. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  49. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2005-w17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Wise)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.