A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market
There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. Our aim is to propose a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of post-war UK labour market. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model where some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component. The long run dynamics are characterized by two cointegrating vectors: trend-adjusted labour productivity and the labour share. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, they Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes representing recession, growth and high growth provides a good characterization of the sample data over the period 1966(3)-1993(1) In an out-of-sample forecast experiment over the period 1991(2)-1993(1) it beats linear and non-linear model alternatives. The results of an impulse-response highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2000-w37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Wise)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.