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War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation

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  • Otaviano Canuto

Abstract

The war in Ukraine is bringing substantial financial, commodity price, and supply chain shocks to the global economy. Sanctions on Russia are already having a significant impact on its financial system and its economy. Price shocks will have a global impact. Energy and commodity prices—including wheat and other grains—have risen, intensifying inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and the recovery from the pandemic. The push toward relative deglobalization received from the pandemic will get stronger. One may expect an increasing weight of geopolitics in international payments and in the access to special commodities.

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  • Otaviano Canuto, 2022. "War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation," Policy briefs 1974, Policy Center for the New South.
  • Handle: RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb18-22
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    File URL: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2022-03/PB_18-22_Canuto_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Oya Celasun & Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Mariano Spector & Jing Zhou, 2022. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?," IMF Working Papers 2022/031, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Abdelaaziz Ait Ali & Fahd AZAROUAL & Oumayma Bourhriba & Uri Dadush, 2022. "The Economic Implications of the War in Ukraine for Africa and Morocco," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1970, Policy Center for the New South.
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update," Liberty Street Economics 20220303, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220104, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Madhusmita Bhadra & M. Junaid Gul & Gyu Sang Choi, 2023. "Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Anatolijs Prohorovs, 2022. "Russia’s War in Ukraine: Consequences for European Countries’ Businesses and Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Otaviano Canuto, 2022. "Emerging economies, global inflation, and growth deceleration," Policy briefs 1977, Policy Center for the New South.
    4. Sergio Mariotti, 2022. "A warning from the Russian–Ukrainian war: avoiding a future that rhymes with the past," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 761-782, December.

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