Money, Interest Rate and Stock Prices: New Evidence from Singapore and The United States
This paper examines the long-term as well as short-term equilibrium relationships between the major stock indices and selected macroeconomic variables (such as money supply and interest rate) of Singapore and the United States by employing the advanced time series analysis techniques that include cointegration, Johansen multivariate cointegrated system, fractional cointegration and Granger causality. The cointegration results based on data covering the period January 1982 to December 2002 suggest that Singapore’s stock prices generally display a long- run equilibrium relationship with interest rate and money supply (M1) but a similar relationship does not hold for the United States. To capture the short-run dynamics of the relationship, we replicate the same experiments with different subsets of data representing shorter time periods. It is evident that stock markets in Singapore moved in tandem with interest rate and money supply before the Asian Crisis of 1997, but this pattern was not observed after the crisis. In the United States, stock prices were strongly cointegrated with macroeconomic variables before the 1987 equity crisis but the relationship gradually weakened and totally disappeared with the emergence of Asian Crisis that also indirectly affected the United States. The results of fractional cointegration and the Johansen multivariate system are consistent with the earlier cointegration result that both Singapore and US stock markets did possess equilibrium relationship with M1 and interest rate at the early days. However, the stability of the systems was disturbed by a series of well-known financial turbulence in the past two decades and eventually weakened for Singapore and completely disappeared for the U.S. This may imply that monetary authority may take action to respond to the asset price turbulence in order to maintain the stability of monetary economy and thus break the existing equilibrium between stock markets and macroeconomic variables like interest rate and M1. Another possible explanation is that the market became more efficient after 1997 Asian crisis. Finally, the results of Granger causality tests uncover some systematic causal relationships implying That stock market performance might be a good gauge for Central Bank’s monetary policy adjustment.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/index.html|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frank Smets, 1997.
"Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume,
in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements.
- Smets, Frank, 1997. "Financial Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cahiers de recherche
8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
- Wu, Ying, 2001. "Exchange rates, stock prices, and money markets: evidence from Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-458.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
- W. L. Chou & Y. C. Shih, 1997. "Long-run purchasing power parity and long-term memory: evidence from Asian newly industrialized countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(9), pages 575-578.
- Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2003.
"How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 543-551.
- Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2002. "How Rewarding Is Technical Analysis? Evidence From Singapore Stock Market," Departmental Working Papers wp0216, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-37, Summer.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Charles A. E. Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2001. "Asset prices, financial conditions and the transmission of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Roger Perman, 1991. "Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 3-30, September.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Financial Variables and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 112, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998.
"A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Wing-keung Wong & Raymond Chan, 2004.
"On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 365-372.
- Wing-Keung Wong & Raymond H. Chan, 2004. "On the Estimation of Cost of Capital and its Reliability," Departmental Working Papers wp0401, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- Peevey, Robert M. & Uselton, Gene C. & Moroney, John R., 1992. "The individual investor in the market: Forming a belief regarding market efficiency," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 87-96.
- Ho, Yan-ki, 1983. "Money supply and equity prices : An empirical note on Far Eastern countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 161-165.
- Wong, Wing-Keung & Bian, Guorui, 2005.
"Estimating parameters in autoregressive models with asymmetric innovations,"
Statistics & Probability Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 61-70, January.
- Wing-Keung Wong & Guorui Bian, 2004. "Estimating Parameters in Autoregressive Models with Asymmetric Innovations," Departmental Working Papers wp0408, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- Maysami, Ramin Cooper & Koh, Tiong Sim, 2000. "A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-96, February.
- Meher Manzur & Wing-Keung Wong & Inn-Chau Chee, 1999. "Measuring international competitiveness: experience from East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1383-1391.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Wong, Wing-Keung & Li, Chi-Kwong, 1999. "A note on convex stochastic dominance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 293-300, March.
- Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
- Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.