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Financial Integration for India Stock Market, a Fractional Cointegration Approach

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  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Aman Agarwal

    (GGS Indraprastha University)

  • Jun Du

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

The Indian stock market is one of the earliest in Asia being in operation since 1875, but remained largely outside the global integration process until the late 1980s. A number of developing countries in concert with the International Finance Corporation and the World Bank took steps in the 1980s to establish and revitalize their stock markets as an effective way of mobilizing and allocation of finance. In line with the global trend, reform of the Indian stock market began with the establishment of Securities and Exchange Board of India in 1988. This paper empirically investigates the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run dynamic linkage between the Indian stock market and the stock markets in major developed countries (United States, United Kingdom and Japan) after 1990 by examining the Granger causality relationship and the pairwise, multiple and fractional cointegrations between the Indian stock market and the stock markets from these three developed markets. We conclude that Indian stock market is integrated with mature markets and sensitive to the dynamics in these markets in a long run. In a short run, both US and Japan Granger causes the Indian stock market but not vice versa. In addition, we find that the Indian stock index and the mature stock indices form fractionally cointegrated relationship in the long run with a common fractional, nonstationary component and find that the Johansen method is the best reveal their cointegration relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Wing-Keung Wong & Aman Agarwal & Jun Du, 2005. "Financial Integration for India Stock Market, a Fractional Cointegration Approach," Departmental Working Papers wp0501, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0501
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    File URL: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp/wp0501.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Ranjan Dasgupta, 2014. "Integration and Dynamic Linkages of the Indian Stock Market with Bric - An Empirical Study," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 715-731, June.
    2. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2013. "Stock Market Linkages in Emerging Asia-Pacific Markets," MPRA Paper 45871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sunil S. Poshakwale & Anandadeep Mandal, 2017. "Sources of time varying return comovements during different economic regimes: evidence from the emerging Indian equity market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 859-892, May.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data: Connections," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-024/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Saha, Malayendu & Bhunia, Amalendu, 2012. "How far India has gone down the road towards financial integration with US since subprime crisis? An Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 38731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kolluri, Bharat & Wahab, Susan & Wahab, Mahmoud, 2015. "An examination of co-movements of India's stock and government bond markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 39-56.
    7. Seshaiah, S.V., 2006. "Indian Capital Market Integration with Select Developed and Developing Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    8. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Relationship between regional Shariah stock markets: The cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 76281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bank for International Settlements & Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, 2008. "Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 42, January.
    10. Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Bhaduri, Saumitra N., 2011. "Correlation dynamics in equity markets: evidence from India," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 64-74, January.
    11. Dufrénot, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2014. "Spillover effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the volatility of the Indian equity markets: Coupling or uncoupling? A study on sector-based data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 17-32.
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Integration of India's stock market with global and major regional markets," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 202-236 Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & James C. Orlando, 2016. "Linkages Between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 143-153, April.
    14. Sowmya Dhanaraj & Arun Kumar Gopalaswamy & Suresh Babu M, 2013. "Dynamic interdependence between US and Asian markets: an empirical study," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 220-237, April.
    15. Paramita Mukherjee, 2011. "An exploration on volatility across India and some developed and emerging equity markets," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 18(2), pages 79-103, December.

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    Keywords

    unit root test; cointegration; Error Correction Model; Vector Autoregression Model; Johansen Multivariate Cointegration; Fractional Cointegration;

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