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Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation

  • Tilak Abeysinghe

    ()

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Gulasekaran Rajaguru

    (Bond University)

The growing affluence of the East and Southeast Asian economies has come about through a substantial increase in their economic links with the rest of the world, the OECD economies in particular. Econometric studies that try to quantify these links face a severe shortage of high frequency time series data for China and the group of ASEAN4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). In this exercise we provide quarterly real GDP estimates for these countries derived by applying the Chow-Lin related series technique to annual real GDP series. The quality of the disaggregated series is evaluated through a number of indirect methods. Some potential problems of using readily available univariate disaggregation techniques are also highlighted.

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File URL: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp/wp0404.pdf
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Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number wp0404.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0404
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/index.html

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  1. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
  2. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  3. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Wang Xiaolu & Meng Lian, 2001. "A reevaluation of China's economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 338-346.
  5. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August.
  6. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
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