IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nus/nusewp/wp0213.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Aggregate Consumption Puzzle In Singapore

Author

Listed:
  • Tilak ABEYSINGHE

    (National University of Singapore)

  • CHOY Keen Meng

    () (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

We draw attention to an apparent puzzle in the aggregate consumption behaviour of Singaporeans. In stark contrast to the rest of the world, the average propensity to consume has plummeted to a record low of two-fifths of income in 2000 leaving the economy without a good built-in stabilizer. This phenomenon is a notable departure from the stable long-run equilibrium relationship between consumption, disposable income and wealth observed elsewhere. The explanation of this puzzle is the main focus of the paper but we also draw attention to some policy measures that may reverse the process

Suggested Citation

  • Tilak ABEYSINGHE & CHOY Keen Meng, 2002. "The Aggregate Consumption Puzzle In Singapore," Departmental Working Papers wp0213, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp/wp0213.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten M Sloek, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Angus Deaton, 1985. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 465-521.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Phang, Sock-Yong, 2004. "House prices and aggregate consumption: do they move together? Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 101-119, June.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Deaton, Angus S, 1977. "Involuntary Saving through Unanticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 899-910, December.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Ermisch, J. F. & Huff, W. G., 1999. "Hypergrowth in an East Asian NIC: Public policy and capital accumulation in Singapore," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 21-38, January.
    9. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    11. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
    12. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Product Since 1869," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn46-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2004. "A VAR Analysis of Singapore’s Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 19-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    2. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2010. "Managing Capital Flows: The Case of Singapore," Chapters,in: Managing Capital Flows, chapter 14 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Sadiye Baykara & Erdinç Telatar, 2012. "The Stationarity Of Consumption-Income Ratios With Nonlinear And Asymmetric Unit Root Tests: Evidence From Fourteen Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20129, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    4. Cheolbeom Park & Pei Fang Lim, 2004. "Excess sensitivity of consumption, liquidity constraints, and mandatory saving," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 771-774.
    5. Kirsten Ludi, 2006. "Consumption Behaviour in Zambia: The Link to Poverty Alleviation?," Working Papers 200602, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Mark J. HOLMES & Xin SHEN, 2015. "On Wealth Volatility, Asymmetries And The Average Propensity To Consume In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 69-78.
    7. Faik Bilgili & Hayriye Hilal Baðlýtaþ, 2016. "Testing the Permanent Income and Random Walk Hypotheses for Turkey†," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1371-1378.
    8. Packey Daniel J & Nusair Salah, 2009. "Kuwaiti Consumption in the Presence of Dramatic Economic Events: 1973-2003," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Holmes, Mark J. & Shen, Xin, 2013. "A note on the average propensity to consume, wealth and threshold adjustment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 309-313.
    10. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:2:p:109-123 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption function; average propensity to consume; cointegrating relation; asset price inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/denussg.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.