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The Distortionary Effects Of Temporal Aggregation On Granger Causality

Author

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  • Rajaguru GULASEKARAN

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Tilak ABEYSINGHE

    () (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

Economists often have to use temporally aggregated data in causality tests. A number of theoretical studies have pointed out that temporal aggregation has distorting effects on causal inference. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of the distortions created by temporal aggregation by plugging in theoretical cross covariances into the limiting values of least squares estimates. Some Monte Carlo results and an application are provided to assess the impact in small samples. It is observed that in general the most distorting causal inferences are likely at low levels of temporal aggregation. At high levels of aggregation, causal information concentrates in contemporaneous correlations. At present, a data-based approach is not available to establish the direction of causality between contemporaneously correlated variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajaguru GULASEKARAN & Tilak ABEYSINGHE, 2002. "The Distortionary Effects Of Temporal Aggregation On Granger Causality," Departmental Working Papers wp0204, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0204
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    Cited by:

    1. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2009. "A Gaussian Test for Cointegration," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0905, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    2. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gu Jiaying, 2009. "Does the IV estimator establish causality? Re-examining Chinese fertility-growth relationship," Microeconomics Working Papers 22758, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Kweon, Young-Jun & Lynn, Cheryl W., 2010. "Behind Traffic Fatality Reduction in 2008 in Virginia," 51st Annual Transportation Research Forum, Arlington, Virginia, March 11-13, 2010 207244, Transportation Research Forum.
    4. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2003. "Temporal Aggregation, Causality Distortions, and a Sign Rule," Departmental Working Papers wp0406, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
    5. Kucukkale, Yakup & Yamak, Rahmi, 2012. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law with disaggregated data: evidence from Turkey, 1968-2004," MPRA Paper 36894, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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