From Preventative to Permissive Checks: The Changing Nature of the Malthusian Relationship between Nuptiality and the Price of Provisions in the Nineteenth Century
The Malthusian “preventive check” mechanism has been well documented for preindustrial England through evidence for a negative correlation between the marriage rate and the price of wheat. Other literature, however, speculates that the correlation was in fact positive from the early nineteenth century. This paper uses the cointegrated VAR model and recursive estimation techniques to document the changing relationship between nuptiality and the price of wheat from 1541–1965. The relationship is indeed positive from the early nineteenth century to the First World War. A simple theoretical model shows that this result is not in fact inconsistent with a stylized Malthusian mechanism, and can be understood within the context of an increasing dominance of shocks to aggregate demand rather than to aggregate supply.
|Date of creation:||02 May 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxine Collett)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.