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Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data

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  • Paolo Lucchino

    ()

  • Dr Chiara Rosazza Bondibene

    ()

  • Jonathan Portes

    ()

Abstract

Immigration has been central in recent UK policy debates and has attracted significant concern over its possible adverse effect on labour market outcomes. This paper contributes to the evidence on this issue by presenting initial results on the impact of migration inflows on the claimant count rate using previously unused data on National Insurance Number registrations of foreign nationals. Our results, which appear robust to different specifications, different levels of geographic aggregation, and to a number of tests, seem to confirm the lack of any impact of migration on unemployment in aggregate. We find no association between migrant inflows and claimant unemployment. In addition, we test for whether the impact of migration on claimant unemployment varies according to the state of the economic cycle. We find no evidence of a more adverse during periods of low growth or the recent recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Lucchino & Dr Chiara Rosazza Bondibene & Jonathan Portes, 2012. "Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 386, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:3125
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    File URL: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/dp386.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Manacorda & Alan Manning & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2006. "The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0608, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Timothy J. Hatton & Massimiliano Tani, 2005. "Immigration and Inter-Regional Mobility in the UK, 1982-2000," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 342-358, November.
    3. Jennifer Hunt, 1992. "The Impact of the 1962 Repatriates from Algeria on the French Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 45(3), pages 556-572, April.
    4. Tapan Biswas & Jo McHardy & Michael Nolan, 2008. "Inter-regional Migration: The UK experience," Working Papers 2008003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    5. George J. Borjas, 2006. "Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    6. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the UK Labour Market," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0501, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    7. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Ian P. Preston, 2013. "The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 145-173.
    8. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    9. Peter Boden & Phil Rees, 2010. "Using administrative data to improve the estimation of immigration to local areas in England," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 707-731.
    10. Sara Lemos & Jonathan Portes, 2008. "New Labour? The Impact of Migration from Central and Eastern European Countries on the UK Labour Market," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/29, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Alfano & Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2016. "Immigration and the UK: Reflections After Brexit," Development Working Papers 402, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 28 Sep 2016.
    2. repec:ilo:ilowps:485561 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2016. "Unemployed, Now What? The Effect of Immigration on Unemployment Transitions of Native-born Workers in the United States," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 015013, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
    4. repec:eee:jhecon:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:123-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Giuntella, Osea & Nicodemo, Catia & Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2015. "The Effects of Immigration on NHS Waiting Times," IZA Discussion Papers 9351, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. repec:esr:resser:bkmnext230 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wickramasekara, Piyasiri., 2014. "Assessment of the impact of migration of health professionals on the labour market and health sector performance in destination countries," ILO Working Papers 994855613402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Duszczyk, Maciej & Góra, Marek & Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2013. "Costs and Benefits of Labor Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries: The Case of Poland," IZA Discussion Papers 7664, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration on the Native-born Unemployed," Economics Policy Note Archive 16-3, Levy Economics Institute.

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