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Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Revised Analysis of Panel Data Cointegration Tests

  • Mirjana Miletic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

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    This paper aims to reassess the contribution of the Balassa-Samuelson effect to the inflation and real exchange rate appreciation using panel data for nine CEECs covering the period ranging from the mid-1990s to the third quarter of 2010. The main idea of this analysis is to answer the question of whether the Global Economic Crisis had a significant impact on the efforts of CEECs to stay on the path of real convergence. The Balassa-Samuelson effect explains less than 1.5 percentage points on average of inflation differential relative to the euro area and around 1 percentage point of the total domestic inflation. The results are robust across the model specification and estimation method. Most of the results point out that the Balassa-Samuelson effect has not changed considerably during the crisis even though it is lower compared to that in the earlier stage of transition (for the period up to 2004).

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    Paper provided by National Bank of Serbia in its series Working papers with number 22.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nsb:wpaper:22
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    1. Dedu, Vasile & Dumitrescu, Bogdan Andrei, 2010. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 44-53, December.
    2. Balazs Egert, 2010. "Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel’s Law and other Culprits," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp991, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
    4. Balázs �gert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, 04.
    5. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2009. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3, pages 1-24.
    7. García Solanes José, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Central and Eastern European Countries. Why the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Does Not Explain the Whole Story," Working Papers 2010100, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    9. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2009. "Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson (Re)Visit Eastern Europe," EFZG Working Papers Series 0907, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    10. Păun Cristian, 2009. "An empirical estimation of Balassa-Samuelson Effect in case of Eastern European Countries," Revista OEconomica, Romanian Society for Economic Science, Revista OEconomica, issue 01, March.
    11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    12. Balázs Égert & Imed Drine & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Christophe Rault, 2002. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 483, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    14. Monika Blaszkiewicz & Przemek Kowalski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2004. "Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0057, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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