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Serbian foreign exchange market during 2004-2008

  • Mario Jovanović

    (Ruhr-University Bochum)

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    This paper shows firstly that the money-in-the-utility-function model presents exactly the same kind of limitations as the cash-in-advance model for characterizing explosive hyperinflation. These limitations relate to sufficient money essentiality in the sense of Scheinkman (1980). Thereby, this paper contributes to the understanding of the Cagan inflationary finance models failure with perfect foresight. Secondly, the paper provides theoretical support to alternative functional forms of money demand that may be give an alternative to the failure of Cagan based inflationary finance model for the analysis of explosive hyperinflation. Theoretical support is brought to inelastic functional forms of money demand and specifically to the double-log schedule.

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    File URL: http://www.nbs.rs/export/internet/latinica/90/SEEMHNkonferencija/SEEMHN_12_Mario_Jovanovic.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bank of Serbia in its series SEEMHN papers with number 19.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nsb:seemhn:19
    Note: The paper was presented at the Fourth Annual SEEMHN Conference hosted by the National Bank of Serbia, 27 March 2009 in Belgrade.
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    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2008. "Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 414-431.
    7. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
    8. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 7-24, September.
    9. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
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    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    12. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    13. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    14. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    15. Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, 2008. "Testing for a unit root under errors with just barely infinite variance," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 1066-1087, November.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    17. István P. Székely & Ãdám Kóbor, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption; Weathering Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 04/16, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
    20. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Claessens, Stijn, 1991. "Optimal dynamic hedging portfolios and the currency composition of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 131-148, March.
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