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Inflation dynamics and poverty rates: regional and sectoral evidence for Ghana


  • Simeon Coleman


In this paper, we investigate the co-incidence of inflation persistence and poverty in a small open economy, using disaggregated data for Ghana. We initially employ various fractional integration (FI) tests for (a) the existence of long-memory and (b) an estimate of the degree of persistence, where present, in regional and sectoral inflation. Further, based on an analysis of poverty rates across districts and regions in Ghana, we determine where the adverse impacts of inflation persistence would, most likely, hit hardest. Using monthly inflation series for the periods 2005:08-2010:06 (for regions) and 1997:10-2010:06 (for sectors), we suggest that the poor in three out of the nine regional groupings and patrons of five out of the twelve sectors considered, will bear the brunt of any welfare-reducing impacts of inflationary shocks, particularly since three of the five sectors are basic necessities. Some policy implications are then discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Simeon Coleman, 2011. "Inflation dynamics and poverty rates: regional and sectoral evidence for Ghana," Working Papers 2011/04, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2011/04

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    Cited by:

    1. Rob Ackrill and Simeon Coleman, 2012. "Inflation dynamics in central and eastern European countries," Working Papers 2012/01, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.

    More about this item


    Inflation persistence; asymmetry; welfare policy objectives; poverty rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs


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