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Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity Induced Tax Rate Reduction

Author

Listed:
  • Max Gillman

    () (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-St. Louis)

  • Michal Kejak

    (CERGE-EI Prague)

Abstract

The paper shows a key role of human capital in explaining how US postwar growth and welfare could have increased while tax rates declined. As in evidence, we assume that the share of government revenue in output has remained stable and model tax evasion within an endogenous growth model with human capital. A trend upwards in the productivity of the goods or human capital sectors gradually decreases the degree of tax evasion, and causes a trend upwards in time spent in human capital accumulation. These productivity increases also increase the ratio of tax revenue to GDP at any given tax rate such that the tax rate must be reduced in order to be consistent with the stylized fact of a constant share of government revenue in output. Based on estimated US postwar goods and human capital sectoral productivities, the model explains 30% of the actual decline in a weighted average of postwar US top marginal personal and corporate tax rates. The estimated joint sectoral productivity increases are asymmetric with a larger relative increase in the human capital investment sector, a result related to McGrattan and Prescotts (2010) relatively larger increase in the productivity of the sector producing intangible capital relative to the goods sector. We show that in a special case of exogenous growth without human capital investment, the explanatory power of the tax trend drops significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2013. "Tax Evasion, Human Capital, and Productivity Induced Tax Rate Reduction," Working Papers 1001, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msl:workng:1001
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    File URL: http://www.umsl.edu/econ/Research/WorkingPapers/UMSL_ECON_WP_1001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    2. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
    3. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-1528, June.
    4. Jonathan Guryan, 2009. "The Race between Education and Technology: A Review Article," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 177-196.
    5. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    6. Dhami, Sanjit & Al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2010. "Optimal taxation in the presence of tax evasion: Expected utility versus prospect theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 313-337, August.
    7. Sealey, Calvin W, Jr & Lindley, James T, 1977. "Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1251-1266, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; intermediation technology; endogenous growth; human capital productivity; dynamic general equilibrium.;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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