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Modelling credit risk for innovative firms: the role of innovation measures

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  • Chiara Pederzoli

    ()

  • Grid Thoma

    ()

  • Costanza Torricelli

    ()

Abstract

Financial constraints are particularly severe for R&D projects of SMEs, which cannot generally rely on equity markets and, in the EU, on a sufficiently developed VC industry. If innovative SMEs have to depend on banks to finance their R&D projects, it is particularly important to develop models able to estimate their probability of default (PD) in consideration of their peculiar features. Based on the signaling value of some innovative assets, the purpose of this paper is to show the importance to include them into models which have proved to be successful for SMEs. To this end, we take a logit model and test it on a unique dataset of innovative SMEs (based on PATSTAT database, EPO BULLETIN and AMADEUS) to estimate a two-year PD with default years 2006-2008. In the regression analysis the innovation-related variables are two in order to account for R&D productivity at the level of the firm and to consider the value of the inventive output. Our analyses first address measurement issues concerning innovation-related variable and then show that, while the accounting variables and the patent value are always significant with the expected sign, the patent number per se reduces the PD only in the presence of an appropriate equity level.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2011. "Modelling credit risk for innovative firms: the role of innovation measures," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 11031, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:11031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ashish Arora & Andrea Fosfuri & Alfonso Gambardella, 2004. "Markets for Technology: The Economics of Innovation and Corporate Strategy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262511819, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2013. "The financing of Italian firms and the credit crunch: findings and exit strategies," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13101, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    2. C. Pederzoli & C. Torricelli, 2013. "Efficiency and unbiasedness of corn futures markets: new evidence across the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(24), pages 1853-1863, December.
    3. Stefano Cosma & Elisabetta Gualandri, 2014. "The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 2, pages 48-60, February.
    4. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2014. "Towards A Macroprudential Policy In The Eu: Main Issues," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 14110, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Pseudo-naïve approaches to investment performance measurement," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 15021, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    6. Silvia Angilella & Sebastiano Mazz`u, 2013. "The Financing of Innovative SMEs: a multicriteria credit rating model," Papers 1308.0889, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2014.
    7. Enrico Rubaltelli & Sergio Agnoli & Michela Rancan & Tiziana Pozzoli, 2015. "Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 15107, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovative SMEs; default probability; patent value;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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