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American Longevity: Past, Present, and Future

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  • Samuel H. Preston

Abstract

How long we live, and how long members of our families and social groups live, is extraordinarily important to us. It's not a subject of daily discussion, but it would be if we were threatened with a return to earlier conditions. Unfortunately, the subject of longevity falls between the cracks of academe and has received far less attention than it warrants. We are all aware, at least dimly, that peole are living longer than they used to. The numbers are impressive: at the turn of the century, life expectancy at birth in the United States was 48 years; it's now 76 years. Since life expectancy during the Stone Age was in the range of 20 to 30 years, it is clear that a majority of the cumulative advances have taken place in the short span of the 20th century. Without the improvements during this century, half of us would not e here: a quarter of the present U.S. population would have been born and died, and another quarter would never have been born because of the pre-reproductive death of a mother, grandmother, or great grandmother. In developing countries, nearly all of the improvements in longevity have occurred in this century. How these gains were achieved has important implications for public policy; how large future gains will be is the single most important area of uncertainty affecting the fiscal viability of our "old age welfare state." These are the two related issues that I focus on in this policy brief.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel H. Preston, 1996. "American Longevity: Past, Present, and Future," Center for Policy Research Policy Briefs 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  • Handle: RePEc:max:cprpbr:007
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, "undated". "Death and Taxes: How Longer Life Will Affect Social Security," Working Papers _004, University of California at Berkeley, Demography of Aging.
    2. Winkleby, M.A. & Jatulis, D.E. & Frank, E. & Fortmann, S.P., 1992. "Socioeconomic status and health: How education, income, and occupation contribute to risk factors for cardiovascular disease," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 82(6), pages 816-820.
    3. Samuel H. Preston & Michael R. Haines, 1991. "Fatal Years: Child Mortality in Late Nineteenth-Century America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pres91-1, August.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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