SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates
SEMIFAR models introduced in Beran (1999) provide a semiparametric modelling framework that enables the data analyst to separate deterministic and stochastic trends as well as short- and long-memory components in an observed time series. A correct distinction between these components, and in particular, the decision which of the components may be present in the data have an important impact on forecasts. in this paper, forecasts and forecast intervals for SEMIFAR models are obtained. The forecasts are based on an extrapolation of the stochastic component. In the data analystical part of the paper, the proposed method is applied to foreign exchange rates from Europe and Asia.
|Date of creation:||02 Jun 1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995.
"A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1989.
"An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange rate determination,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
367, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 603-19, May.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Unit Root Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1104, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Baillie and Bollerslev GARCH models with day-of-week effects," Statistical Software Components RTZ00172, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. " A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-85, June.
- Hall, Peter & Hart, Jeffrey D., 1990. "Nonparametric regression with long-range dependence," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 339-351, December.
- Chiu, Shean-Tsong, 1989. "Bandwidth selection for kernel estimate with correlated noise," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 347-354, September.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:9913. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Nolte)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ingmar Nolte to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.