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Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk Averse Investors? Empirical Evidence

  • Jens Carsten Jackwerth

    ()

    (Universität Konstanz)

  • George M. Constantinides
  • Michal Czerwonko
  • Stylianos Perrakis

American call and put options on the S&P 500 index futures that violate the stochastic dominance bounds of Constantinides and Perrakis (2007) over 1983-2006 are identified as potentially profitable investment opportunities. Call bid prices more frequently violate their upper bound than put bid prices do, while evidence of underpriced calls and puts over this period is scant. In out-of-sample tests, the inclusion of short positions in such overpriced calls, puts, and, particularly, straddles in the market portfolio is shown to increase the expected utility of any risk averse investor and also increase the Sharpe ratio, net of transaction costs and bid-ask spreads. The results are strongly supportive of mispricing. (JEL G11, G13, G14)

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Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 08-08.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 16 Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0808
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  1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
  2. Jens Carsten Jackwerth & George M. Constantinaides & Stylianos Perrakis, 2005. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-09, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  3. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, 04.
  6. Constantinides, George M. & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2002. "Stochastic dominance bounds on derivatives prices in a multiperiod economy with proportional transaction costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1323-1352, July.
  7. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  8. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
  9. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1435-1464, November.
  10. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2006. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance," Working Papers 36, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  11. Constantinides, George M, 1986. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Transaction Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 842-62, August.
  12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  13. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1567-1591, 08.
  14. Joshua Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Empirical Pricing Kernels," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  15. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113.
  16. Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout, 2007. "An Empirical Portfolio Perspective on Option Pricing Anomalies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 561-603.
  17. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
  18. Joshua D. Coval, 2001. "Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 983-1009, 06.
  19. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
  20. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
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