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Customer Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: Empirical Evidence from an Internet Trading Platform

  • Ingmar Nolte


    (University of Konstanz)

  • Sandra Lechner


    (University of Konstanz)

This paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling frequencies can be improved with the information contained in the flow of our investors’ orders. Moreover, we verify several hypotheses on the trading behavior and the preference structure of our investors by investigating how past price changes affect future order flow.

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Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 07-03.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 15 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0703
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  1. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
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  4. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
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  15. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  16. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  17. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, June.
  18. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  19. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  20. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
  21. Roll, Richard, 1984. " A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-39, September.
  22. Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 103-50.
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