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A Dynamic Integer Count Data Model for Financial Transaction Prices

  • Winfried Pohlmeier

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz)

  • Roman Liesenfeld

    (University of Pittsburgh)

In this paper we develop a dynamic model for integer counts to capture the discreteness of price changes for financial transaction prices. Our model rests on an autoregressive multinomial component for the direction of the price change and a dynamic count data component for the size of the price changes. Since the model is capable of capturing a wide range of discrete price movements it is particularly suited for financial markets where the trading intensity is moderate or low as for most European exchanges. We present the model at work by applying it to transaction data of the Henkel share traded at the Frankfurt stock exchange over a period of 6 months. In particular, we use the model to test some theoretical implications of the market microstructure theory on the relationship between price movements and other marks of the trading process.

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File URL: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de/Papers/dp03_03.pdf
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Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 03-03.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0303
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  1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  2. Ball, Clifford A, 1988. " Estimation Bias Induced by Discrete Security Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 841-65, September.
  3. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
  4. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1990. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Working papers 3234-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  5. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
  6. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot, 2003. "Asymmetric ACD models: Introducing price information in ACD models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 709-731, November.
  7. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  8. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  9. Neil Shephard & Tina Hviid Rydberg, 2002. "Dynamics of trade-by-trade price movements: decomposition and models," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-FE-04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. " Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
  11. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
  12. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Estimation of Stock Price Variances and Serial Covariances from Discrete Observations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 291-306, September.
  13. Nikolaus Hautsch & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Transaction Data: Pitfalls and Opportunities," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May.
  15. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  16. Cho, David Chinhyung & Frees, Edward W, 1988. " Estimating the Volatility of Discrete Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 451-66, June.
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