The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report
This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information on mean and variance of the intraday return process by including appropriate variables accounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allows us to differentiate between the consistent price reaction to surprising news and the traders’ uncertainty about the precise price impact of this information. Focussing on the US employment report, we find that headline information is almost instantaneously incorporated into T-bond futures prices. Nevertheless, large surprises, and ’bad’ news in particular, create considerable uncertainty. In contrast, if surprises in related headlines cross-validate each other, less room for differences of opinion is left, and hence volatility is decreased.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Fach D 147, D-78457 Konstanz|
Web page: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://cofe.uni-konstanz.de Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997.
"What moves the bond market?,"
9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989.
"Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003.
"The market microstructure of central bank intervention,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
- Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1999. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dominguez & K., 1997. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 412, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
- Hali J. Edison, 1996.
"The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates to news releases,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
570, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
- Harris, Lawrence, 1987. "Transaction Data Tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 127-141, June.
- Gerald P. Dwyer & R. W. Hafer, 1989. "Interest rates and economic announcements," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 34-46.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Urich, Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1063-72, December.
- Timothy Cook & Steven Korn, 1991. "The reaction of interest rates to the employment report: the role of policy anticipations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1984.
"Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-51, June.
- Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June.
- Harvey, Campbell R & Huang, Roger D, 1991. "Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 543-69.
- Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998.
"Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
- Charles M. Jones & Owen Lamont & Robin Lumsdaine, 1996. "Macroeconomic News and Bond Market Volatility," Home Pages _005, Princeton University, Department of Economics.
- Charles M. Jones & Owen Lamont & Robin L. Lumsdaine, . "Macroeconomic News and Bond Market Volatility," CRSP working papers 333, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
- Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August.
- Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-68, September.
- Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
- Copeland, Thomas E & Friedman, Daniel, 1987. " The Effect of Sequential Information Arrival on Asset Prices: An Experimental Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 763-97, July.
- Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
- Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
- Engle, Robert F, 1998. "Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7rd4g3bk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Nolte)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.