IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Modelling Intraday Trading Activity Using Box-Cox-ACD Models

  • Nikolaus Hautsch


    (University of Copenhagen)

In this paper, I model the intraday trading activity based on volume durations, i.e. the waiting time until a predetermined volume is absorbed by the market. Since this concept measures the trading volume per time it is strongly related to market liquidity. I focus on volumes measured independently of the side of the market as well as on buy volumes, sell volumes and volumes measured on both market sides simultaneously. For econometric modelling of the different duration concepts, the performance of alternative types of Box-Cox-ACD models are analyzed. By evaluating out-of-sample forecasts, evidence is provided that Box-Cox-ACD models are a valuable tool for predicting volume durations. It is shown that volume durations measured independently of the side of the market have the best predictability. Furthermore, I illustrate that the inclusion of explanatory variables capturing past market activities concerning the price process and imbalances between the buy and sell side of the market. The empirical study uses IBM transaction data from the NYSE.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz in its series CoFE Discussion Paper with number 02-05.

in new window

Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 15 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0205
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Fach D 147, D-78457 Konstanz

Phone: +49-7531-88-2204
Fax: +49-7531-88-4450
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5478 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Jason Greene & Scott Smart, 1999. "Liquidity Provision and Noise Trading: Evidence from the "Investment Dartboard" Column," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1885-1899, October.
  3. Keim, Donald B & Madhaven, Ananth, 1996. "The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36.
  4. Gaëlle Le Fol & Christian Gourieroux, 1999. "Intra-day market activity," Post-Print halshs-00536268, HAL.
  5. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecast," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136218, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Frank Gerhard & Nikolaus Hautsch, 1999. "Volatility Estimation on the Basis of Price Intensities," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-19, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  7. VEREDAS, David & RODRIGUEZ-POO, Juan & ESPASA, Antoni, 2002. "On the (intradaily) seasonality and dynamics of a financial point process: a semiparametric approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2002023, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  9. Conroy, Robert M & Harris, Robert S & Benet, Bruce A, 1990. " The Effects of Stock Splits on Bid-Ask Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1285-95, September.
  10. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1991. " Order Form and Information in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 905-27, July.
  11. FERNANDES, Marcelo & GRAMMIG, Joachim, 2001. "A family of autoregressive conditional duration models," CORE Discussion Papers 2001036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  12. Easley, David, et al, 1996. " Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-36, September.
  13. Aggarwal, Raj & Gruca, Edward, 1993. "Intraday Trading Patterns in the Equity Options Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 285-97, Winter.
  14. Nikolaus Hautsch, 1999. "Analyzing the Time between Trades with a Gamma Compounded Hazard Model. An Application to LIFFE Bund Future Transactions," Finance 9904002, EconWPA.
  15. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  16. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
  17. Al-Suhaibani, Mohammad & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2000. "An exploratory analysis of the order book, and order flow and execution on the Saudi stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1323-1357, August.
  18. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  19. Wood, Robert A & McInish, Thomas H & Ord, J Keith, 1985. " An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 723-39, July.
  20. Elyasiani, Elyas & Hauser, Shmuel & Lauterbach, Beni, 2000. "Market Response to Liquidity Improvements: Evidence from Exchange Listings," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, February.
  21. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September.
  22. Joachim Grammig & Kai-Oliver Maurer, 2000. "Non-monotonic hazard functions and the autoregressive conditional duration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
  23. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
  24. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  25. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2000. "Tick Size, Spreads, and Liquidity: An Analysis of Nasdaq Securities Trading near Ten Dollars," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 213-239, July.
  26. Kluger, Brian D & Stephan, Jens, 1997. "Alternative Liquidity Measures and Stock Returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 19-36, January.
  27. Robert F. Engle & Joe Lange, 1997. "Measuring, Forecasting and Explaining Time Varying Liquidity in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-56.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:knz:cofedp:0205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ingmar Nolte)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.