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Eingleichungsmodelle zur Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels

  • Hubert Strauß
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    Sowohl die deutschen Exporte als auch die Importe von Waren und Dienstleistungen weisen im Zeitraum 1974–1999 bezüglich der zugrunde liegenden Aktivitätsvariablen eine langfristige Elastizität von jeweils rund 1,5 auf. Die Langfristelastizität in Bezug auf den realen Außenwert der D-Mark fällt mit rund –0,5 für die Exporte und 0,1 für die Importe dagegen recht unterschiedlich aus. Die kurzfristige Anpassungsdynamik ist durch eine gröÂßtenteils kontemporäre Reaktion auf konjunkturelle Änderungen gekennzeichnet, während Wechselkursänderungen einige Quartale benötigen, um voll zu wirken. Dies ergeben Schätzungen nach dem Fehlerkorrekturmodell. Ein Vergleich zeigt, dass die Industrieproduktion im Ausland einen höheren Erklärungsgehalt für die Entwicklung der Ausfuhr hat als das ausländische Bruttoinlandsprodukt und daher auch genauere Prognosen ermöglicht. The paper presents single-equation error-correction models of aggregate German exports and imports. The long-run elasticities with respect to foreign production and to total demand in Germany, respectively, amount to about 1.5. However, imports react much less flexibly than exports to changes in the real effective exchange rate of the D-mark (0.1 versus –0.5) during the sample period (1974 to 1999). The short-run dynamics reveal that most of the trade effects of changes in economic activity occur contemporanously whereas changes in the external value of the German currency need several quarters to feed through trade volumes. It turns out that a trade-weighted index of industrial production abroad fits historical export quantities better than foreign GDP.

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    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 987.

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    Length: 52 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2000
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    Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:987
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