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Money as an Indicator in the Euro Zone

  • Jan Gottschalk
  • Felipe Martinez Rico
  • Willem Van Zandweghe

This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and consumption in the euro zone. It considers M1 and M3; a number of modifications to these aggregates is also proposed to enhance their forecast performance. The evaluation employs Granger-causality tests, stability tests and historical out-of-sample forecasts. On balance the information content of money appears to be rather limited. An improvement of the forecast is confined to the real variables and to the second half of the nineties. For the first half of the nineties the forecast performance of money is generally poor.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 984.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: May 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:984
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  1. Mark S Astley & Andrew G Haldane, 1995. "Money as an Indicator," Bank of England working papers 35, Bank of England.
  2. Jan Gottschalk, 1999. "On the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Europe: Results from a Cointegration Analysis of a Money Demand System," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 219(3+4), pages 357-374, September.
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  7. Ross Milbourne, 1988. "Disequilibrium Buffer Stock Models: A Survey," Working Papers 715, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
  9. P.J.G. Vlaar & H. Schuberth, 1999. "Monetary Transmission and Controllability of Money in Europe: aStructural Vector Error Correction Approach," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 36, Netherlands Central Bank.
  10. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  11. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  12. J. Bradford De Long, 2000. "The Triumph of Monetarism?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 83-94, Winter.
  13. Alberto Cabrero & Juan L. Escrivá & Emilio Muñoz & Juan Peñalosa, 1998. "The Controllability of a Monetary Aggregate in EMU," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9817, Banco de Espa�a.
  14. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus, 1999. "Euroland: Geldpolitik regt Konjunktur an," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2319, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  17. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  22. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
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  24. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
  27. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
  28. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
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