Banking and balance of payments crises: On possible causes of the twin crises
Banking and balance of payments crises often happen quite simultaneously. We show that the impact of an expected devaluation on the net worth of commercial banks with a short open foreign exchange position speeds up the timing of a balance of payments crisis. We employ an asymmetric information framework in which domestic commercial banks have to pay a positive risk premium on the international capital market which is determined by their net worth. Some stylized facts from selected transition and developing countries are presented in order to gauge the empirical relevance of the effects that we stress.
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