Explaining the Argentine growth paradox: new evidence applying cointegration techniques
In this paper we revisit three hypotheses, which we had proposed before, in an attempt to explain the long-run pattern of Argentine real GDP growth: (i) distributional conflicts (between the government and the private sector, and between entrepreneurs and trade unions), (ii) a permissive monetary policy, and (iii) the delinking of the Argentine economy from the world markets. Applying unit root econometrics we determine that the model is not cointegrated and that it should be estimated with conventional methods in difference form. Alternative estimates . indicate that the best fit is achieved by a model representing hypotheses (i) and (ii) but not (iii). Thus, foreign trade seems not to have had any impact on Argentine GDP during the period studied. Also, the conflict between entrepreneurs and trade unions does not seem to have had an important influence on Argentine growth, at least in the period 1915 - 1978. However, the results for the extended period 1915 - 1988 indicate that our model representing hypotheses (i) and (ii) does not perform well in explaining the 1980s, when substantial changes in economic policy took place in Argentina.
|Date of creation:||1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 85853
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Blejer, Mario I. & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1988. "High inflation, heterodox stabilization, and fiscal policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 867-881, August.
- Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
- Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-12, August.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
- Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Foders, Federico & Glismann, Hans H., 1985. "Wirtschaftskrise in Argentinien: eine Analyse der langfristigen Ursachen," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1303, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.