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Unit root tests of the current account balance: implications for international capital mobility

  • Gundlach, Erich
  • Sinn, Stefan

This paper assesses the extent of international capital mobility in a time series context. It explores the possibility that the current account balance of different OECD-countries contains a unit root. It is shown that if the ratio of the current account balance to GDP is found to be integrated of the order of one, the country is likely to be part of the world capital market. The results for the whole period 1950-1988 indicate that the current account balance of at least Germany, Japan, and the United States contains a unit root. Considering the subperiods before and after 1972 it is shown that international capital mobility increased after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 495.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:495
Contact details of provider: Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
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  1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1991. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 331-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Charles Engel & Kenneth Kletzer, 1987. "Saving and Investment in an Open Economy with Non-Traded Goods," NBER Working Papers 2141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Westphal, Uwe, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 157-159.
  6. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  7. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
  8. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  9. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
  10. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  12. Murphy, Robert G., 1986. "Productivity shocks, non-traded goods and optimal capital accumulation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1081-1095, October.
  13. Tobin, James, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 153-156.
  14. Sinn, Stefan, 1991. "Measuring international capital mobility: A critical assessment of the use of saving and investment correlations," Kiel Working Papers 458, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1991. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 201-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
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