Primary surplus and debt projections based on estimated fiscal reaction functions for euro area countries
We project the path of the public debt and primary surpluses for a number of countries in the euro area under a fiscal rule based on a set of estimated fiscal policy reaction functions. Our fiscal rule represents a fiscal analogue to a well-known monetary policy rule, and it is calibrated using country-specific as well as euro area-wide parameter estimates. We then forecast the dynamics of the fiscal aggregates under different convergence, growth, and interest rate scenarios and investigate the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting methodology may be used to deliver insights into the medium-run effects of different fiscal policy rules and to provide some early warning of future fiscal pressures
|Date of creation:||Jan 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel|
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 85853
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Afonso, António & Hauptmeier, Sebastian, 2009.
"Fiscal behaviour in the European Union: rules, fiscal decentralization and government indebtedness,"
Working Paper Series
1054, European Central Bank.
- Cândida Ferreira, 2009. "Fiscal Behaviour in the European Union: Rules, Fiscal Decentralization and Government Indebtedness," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Martin Plödt & Claire Reicher, 2014.
"Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries,"
Kiel Working Papers
1899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Plödt, Martin & Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries," Kiel Working Papers 1899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Bénétrix, Agustín S. & Lane, Philip R., 2013.
"Fiscal cyclicality and EMU,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
- Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, 2012. "Fiscal Cyclicality and EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp403, IIIS.
- Sebastian Barnes & Jarmila Botev & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Jan Stráský, 2016. "Europe’s New Fiscal Rules," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 7(1).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dieter Stribny)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.