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Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached

  • Konstantin Kiesel
  • Maik Wolters

Monetary policy rule parameters estimated with conventional estimation techniques can be severely biased if the estimation sample includes periods of low interest rates. Nominal interest rates cannot be negative, so that censored regression methods like Tobit estimation have to be used to achieve unbiased estimates. We use IV-Tobit regression to estimate monetary policy responses for Japan, the US and the Euro area. The estimation results show that the bias of conventional estimation methods is sizeable for the inflation response parameter, while it is very small for the output gap response and the interest rate smoothing parameter. We demonstrate how IV-Tobit estimation can be used to study how policy responses change when the zero lower bound is approached. Further, we show how one can use the IV-Tobit approach to distinguish between desired policy responses, that the central bank would implement if there was no zero lower bound, and the actual ones and provide estimates of both

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/estimating-monetary-policy-rules-when-the-zero-lower-bound-on-nominal-interest-rates-is-approached/KWP_1898.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1898.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1898
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  1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6748, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Efficient monetary policy design near price stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. R. Kato & S. Nishiyama, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 8, Society for Computational Economics.
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  7. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
  8. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  9. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  11. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, June.
  12. Oda, Nobuyuki & Nagahata, Takashi, 2008. "On the function of the zero interest rate commitment: Monetary policy rules in the presence of the zero lower bound on interest rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 34-67, March.
  13. Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2010. "Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions," MPRA Paper 23857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and Monetary Policy Approaching a Zero Bound on Nominal Rates: Quantile Regression Results for the United States and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1705-1723, December.
  15. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2010. "Estimating monetary reaction functions at near zero interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 57-60, January.
  16. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
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