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Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached

  • Konstantin Kiesel
  • Maik Wolters

Monetary policy rule parameters estimated with conventional estimation techniques can be severely biased if the estimation sample includes periods of low interest rates. Nominal interest rates cannot be negative, so that censored regression methods like Tobit estimation have to be used to achieve unbiased estimates. We use IV-Tobit regression to estimate monetary policy responses for Japan, the US and the Euro area. The estimation results show that the bias of conventional estimation methods is sizeable for the inflation response parameter, while it is very small for the output gap response and the interest rate smoothing parameter. We demonstrate how IV-Tobit estimation can be used to study how policy responses change when the zero lower bound is approached. Further, we show how one can use the IV-Tobit approach to distinguish between desired policy responses, that the central bank would implement if there was no zero lower bound, and the actual ones and provide estimates of both

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/estimating-monetary-policy-rules-when-the-zero-lower-bound-on-nominal-interest-rates-is-approached/KWP_1898.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1898.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1898
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ryo Kato & Shinichi Nishiyama, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bound at Zero," Working Papers 01-12, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Gerlach, Stefan, 2011. "ECB Repo Rate Setting During the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  8. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Efficient monetary policy design near price stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  10. Oda, Nobuyuki & Nagahata, Takashi, 2008. "On the function of the zero interest rate commitment: Monetary policy rules in the presence of the zero lower bound on interest rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 34-67, March.
  11. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2003. "The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series WP03-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  12. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
  13. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and Monetary Policy Approaching a Zero Bound on Nominal Rates: Quantile Regression Results for the United States and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1705-1723, December.
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  15. Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2010. "Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions," MPRA Paper 23857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2010. "Estimating monetary reaction functions at near zero interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 57-60, January.
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