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A set of estimated fiscal rules for a cross-section of countries: Stabilization and consolidation through which instruments?

  • Christopher Reicher

This paper provides a set of detailed estimated fiscal reaction functions for a panel of twenty industrialized countries, and it discusses commonalities and differences with regard to systematic fiscal policies across countries. In general, the countries in the panel adjust tax revenues strongly in response to the public debt, and they adjust tax revenues and transfer payments, but, interestingly, not tax rates, strongly in response to output fluctuations. Some countries such as Germany appear to adjust government consumption and investment relatively strongly in response to the public debt, while the United States adjusts capital tax rates relatively strongly. In general, an increased emphasis in the theoretical literature on the effects of procyclical tax revenues and countercyclical transfer payments as automatic stabilizers may be warranted

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1850.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1850
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  1. Xavier Debrun & Radhicka Kapoor, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability; Automatic Stabilizers Work, Always and Everywhere," IMF Working Papers 10/111, International Monetary Fund.
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  3. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
  4. Henning Bohn, . "Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments ? Some Historical Evidence for the United States (Reprint 013)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  5. Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 0077, European Central Bank.
  6. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
  7. Henning Bohn, . "Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments? Some Historical Evidence for the United States," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  8. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  9. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2011. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 8239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Plödt, Martin & Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries," Kiel Working Papers 1899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  11. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2003. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions: Empirical Evidence and Optimal Policy Using a Structural New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1060, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999. "Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2015. "How Is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 327-70, August.
  14. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2011. "An estimated fiscal Taylor rule for the postwar United States," Kiel Working Papers 1705, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  15. Susan S. Yang & Todd B. Walker & Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus," IMF Working Papers 10/229, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Agustin Garcia & M. J. Arroyo & R. Minguez & J. Uxo, 2009. "Estimation of a fiscal policy rule for EMU countries (1984-2005)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 869-884.
  17. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2015. "The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S. business cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64479, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  18. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
  19. Bi, Huixin & Kumhof, Michael, 2011. "Jointly optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules under liquidity constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 373-389, September.
  20. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, 2012. "Fiscal Cyclicality and EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp403, IIIS.
  21. Balazs Egert, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-Cyclical?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3777, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  23. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
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