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International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR

  • Jonas Dovern
  • Björn van Roye

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during financial crises and that the FSI of financially open countries are relatively more correlated to FSI in other countries. Subsequently, we investigate the international transmission of financial stress and its impact on economic activity in a Global VAR (GVAR) model. We show that i) financial stress is quickly transmitted internationally, ii) financial stress has a lagged but persistent negative effect on economic activity, and iii) that economic slowdowns induce only limited financial stress

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1844.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1844
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  1. Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "Maximum likelihood estimation of factor models on data sets with arbitrary pattern of missing data," Working Paper Series 1189, European Central Bank.
  2. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2010. "Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 1239, European Central Bank.
  3. Lo Duca, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2011. "Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," Working Paper Series 1311, European Central Bank.
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  5. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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  7. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective," Working Paper Series 0892, European Central Bank.
  8. Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi & Maziar Raissi, 2012. "The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/253, International Monetary Fund.
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  11. Robert Tetlow & Kirstin Hubrich, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  13. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How do credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
  15. Galesi, Alessandro & Lombardi, Marco J., 2009. "External shocks and international inflation linkages: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1062, European Central Bank.
  16. Nils Jannsen, 2009. "National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises," Kiel Working Papers 1510, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  17. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  18. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  19. Sofiane Aboura & Björn van Roye, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: an application to France," Kiel Working Papers 1834, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  20. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
  21. Kevin L. Kliesen & Douglas C. Smith, 2010. "Measuring financial market stress," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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