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Trend Growth and Learning About Monetary Policy Rules in a Two-Block World Economy

  • Eric Schaling
  • Mewael F. Tesfaselassie

Available evidence supports the view that growth is faster in more open economies. In order to analyze the implications of openness and growth on determinacy and learnability of worldwide rational expectations equilibria we develop a two-country New Keynesian model with growth. We analyze these issues for contemporaneous data and expectations-based monetary policy rules. Our results highlight how growth matters for the overall effect of opening an economy to more trade, as we find that (i) under the contemporaneous data policy rule the conditions for determinacy and learnability become more stringent on account of openness but less stringent on account of growth, so that growth weakens the effect of openness, (ii) under the expectations-based policy rule the conditions for determinacy and learnability also become more stringent on account of openness while on account growth the conditions for determinacy become \emph{more} stringent (thus reinforcing the effect of openness) but those for learnability become \emph{less} stringent (thus weakening the effect of openness). As in \citet{BS09} the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is key to our result but within a framework that is consistent with long-run labor supply and balanced growth facts

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/trend-growth-and-learning-about-monetary-policy-rules-in-a-two-block-world-economy/GrowthOpennessDeterminacy_KWP.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1818.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1818
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  1. Honkapohja, S. & Evans, G.W., 2000. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 481, Department of Economics.
  2. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland.
  3. Takushi Kurozumi, 2006. "Determinacy and Expectational Stability of Equilibrium in a Monetary Sticky-Price Model with Taylor Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-2, Bank of Japan.
  4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 501, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in a two-block world economy," Working Papers 2006-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-98, March.
  8. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
  9. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," 2009 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
  12. Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2004. "Trade and Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(2), pages 612-645, May.
  13. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2005. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Working Papers 93, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
  14. Mewael Tesfaselassie, 2011. "Trend Growth and Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Kiel Working Papers 1744, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  16. Akito Matsumoto, 2007. "The Role of Nonseparable Utility and Nontradeables in International Business Cycle and Portfolio Choice," IMF Working Papers 07/163, International Monetary Fund.
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