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Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel J.A. Johansson
  • Paul L. Lucas
  • Matthias Weitzel
  • Erik O. Ahlgren
  • A.B. Bazaz
  • Wenying Chen
  • Michel G.J. den Elzen
  • Joydeep Ghosh
  • Qiao-Mei Liang
  • Sonja Peterson
  • Basanta K. Pradhan
  • Bas J. van Ruijven
  • P.R. Shukla
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren
  • Yi-Ming Wei

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling comparison project on how the 2°C climate target could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. The analysis uses a framework that harmonizes baseline developments and soft-links seven national and global models being either economy wide (CGE models) or energy system models. The analysis is based on a global greenhouse gas emission pathway that aims at a radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2 in 2100 and with a policy regime based on convergence of per capita CO2 emissions with emissions trading. Economic and energy implications for China and India vary across models. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. Reliance on Coal without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is significantly reduced in most models, while CCS is a central abatement technology in energy system models, as is renewable and nuclear energy. Concerning economic impacts China bears in general a higher cost than India, as China benefits less from emissions trading. Costs are also affected by changes in fossil fuel prices, currency depreciation from capital inflow from carbon trading and timing of emission reductions

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel J.A. Johansson & Paul L. Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik O. Ahlgren & A.B. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta K. Pradhan & , 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1808
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    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Dipti & Ghersi, Frédéric & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Garg, Amit, 2019. "Achieving sustainable development in India along low carbon pathways: Macroeconomic assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Niklas Vahlne & Erik O. Ahlgren, 2014. "Energy Efficiency at the Base of the Pyramid: A System-Based Market Model for Improved Cooking Stove Adoption," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(12), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Weitzel, Matthias, 2014. "Worse off from reduced cost? The role of policy design under uncertain technological advancement," Kiel Working Papers 1926, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Kang, Jia-Ning & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-Cui & Han, Rong & Yu, Bi-Ying & Wang, Jin-Wei, 2020. "Energy systems for climate change mitigation: A systematic review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    5. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Lining & Dai, Jiaquan & Zhang, Qi & Peng, Tianduo & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Analysis of China’s oil and gas consumption under different scenarios toward 2050: An integrated modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    6. Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "Who gains from technological advancement? The role of policy design when cost development for key abatement technologies is uncertain," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(1), pages 151-181, January.
    7. Shivika Mittal & Jing-Yu Liu & Shinichiro Fujimori & Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla, 2018. "An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Warner, Kevin J. & Jones, Glenn A., 2017. "A population-induced renewable energy timeline in nine world regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 65-76.
    9. Wei Li & Zhijie Jia, 2017. "Carbon tax, emission trading, or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 973-992, August.
    10. Wang, Zhenyu & Meng, Jing & Zheng, Heran & Shao, Shuai & Wang, Daoping & Mi, Zhifu & Guan, Dabo, 2018. "Temporal change in India’s imbalance of carbon emissions embodied in international trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 914-925.
    11. Mariësse A. E. Van Sluisveld & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Shuichi Ashina & Katherine V. Calvin & Amit Garg & Morna Isaac & Paul L. Lucas & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Sander A. C. Otto & Shilpa Rao & Priyadars, 2013. "A Multi-Model Analysis Of Post-2020 Mitigation Efforts Of Five Major Economies," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-24.
    12. Anasis, John G. & Khalil, Mohammad Aslam Khan & Butenhoff, Christopher & Bluffstone, Randall & Lendaris, George G., 2019. "Optimal energy resource mix for the US and China to meet emissions pledges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 92-100.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate policy; China; India;

    JEL classification:

    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P28 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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