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Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Food Security: Evidence from Yemen

Author

Listed:
  • Clemens Breisinger
  • Olivier Ecker
  • Perrihan Al-Riffai
  • Richard Robertson
  • Rainer Thiele

Abstract

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural nonfarm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered, with implications for income and nutrition

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens Breisinger & Olivier Ecker & Perrihan Al-Riffai & Richard Robertson & Rainer Thiele, 2011. "Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Food Security: Evidence from Yemen," Kiel Working Papers 1747, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1747
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    File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/climate-change-agricultural-production-and-food-security-evidence-from-yemen/KAP_1747.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Food security; Hunger; Development; Growth; Yemen; Middle East and North Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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