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Overconfidence and Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets

  • Julija Michailova
  • Ulrich Schmidt

This paper investigates the relationship between market overconfidence and occurrence of stock-price bubbles. Sixty participants traded stocks in ten experimental asset markets. Markets were constructed on the basis of subjects’ overconfidence, measured in pre-experimental sessions. The most overconfident subjects form “overconfident markets”, and the least overconfident subjects “rational markets”. Prices in rational markets tend to track the fundamental asset value more accurately than prices in overconfident markets and are significantly lower and less volatile. Additionally we observe significantly higher bubble measures and trading volume on overconfident markets. Altogether, our data provide evidence that overconfidence has strong effects on prices and trading behavior in experimental asset markets

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1729.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1729
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  1. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2010. "Bubble measures in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 284-298, September.
  2. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725470, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," SIFR Research Report Series 40, Institute for Financial Research.
  4. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  5. Jordi Caballe & Jozsef Sakovics, 2000. "Speculating against an overconfident market," ESE Discussion Papers 62, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  6. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  7. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
  8. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
  9. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
  10. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
  11. Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
  12. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Guo Ying Luo, 2005. "An Experimental Test of the Impact of Overconfidence and Gender on Trading Activity," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-07, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  13. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
  14. Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling & Ulrich Schmidt, 2010. "Overconfidence, Experience, and Professionalism: An Experimental Study," Kiel Working Papers 1612, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979. "Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge," Discussion Papers 377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  16. Stuart Fraser & Francis J. Greene, 2006. "The Effects of Experience on Entrepreneurial Optimism and Uncertainty," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(290), pages 169-192, 05.
  17. Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004. "The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-292, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  18. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-98, December.
  19. Hvide, Hans K., 2002. "Pragmatic beliefs and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 15-28, May.
  20. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
  21. Ackert, Lucy F. & Charupat, Narat & Deaves, Richard & Kluger, Brian D., 2009. "Probability Judgment Error and Speculation in Laboratory Asset Market Bubbles," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(03), pages 719-744, June.
  22. Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  23. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  24. Maciejovsky, Boris & Kirchler, Erich, 2001. "Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: Evidence from experimental asset markets," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  25. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2006. "Futures Markets And Bubble Formation In Experimental Asset Markets ," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 167-184, 06.
  26. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  27. Zacharias Sautner & Martin Weber, 2009. "How Do Managers Behave In Stock Option Plans? Clinical Evidence From Exercise And Survey Data," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 123-155.
  28. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-41, October.
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  30. repec:oup:qjecon:v:116:y:2001:i:1:p:261-292 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Van Boening, Mark V. & Williams, Arlington W. & LaMaster, Shawn, 1993. "Price bubbles and crashes in experimental call markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 179-185.
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