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The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation

  • Christopher Reicher

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth for the United States from 1960 through 2011. Reallocative shocks (which primarily measure construction and technology busts) have little effect on the natural rate of unemployment or on long run productivity, but there is mild evidence that they are recessionary. A broad class of theoretical models suggests that the contractionary effect of a reallocative shock should come from the direct aggregate effect of the underlying shock and not from human capital mismatch. Looking at the period of the Great Recession, reallocation has had no detectable effect on the natural rate of unemployment and can count for a 0.5% rise in cyclical unemployment from 2007 through the end of 2009 and 0.3% through the beginning of 2011

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1720.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1720
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  1. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "Macroeconomic effects of employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  8. S. Lael Brainard & David M. Cutler, 1990. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 3491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. repec:dgr:uvatin:2000027 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Frank R. Kleibergen & Henk Hoek, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of ARMA Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-027/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  21. Phelan, Christopher & Trejos, Alberto, 2000. "The aggregate effects of sectoral reallocations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 249-268, April.
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