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A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Global Inflation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Morales-Arias
  • Guilherme V. Moura

Abstract

This article proposes a multivariate model of inflation with conditionally heteroskedastic common and country-specific components. The model is estimated in one-step via Quasi-Maximum Likelihood for the G7 countries for the period Q1-1960 to Q4-2009. It is found that various model specifications considered fit well the first and second order dynamics of inflation in the G7. The estimated volatility of the common inflation component captures the international effects of the ‘Great Moderation’ and of the ‘Great Recession’. The model also shows promising capabilities for forecasting inflation in several countries

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Morales-Arias & Guilherme V. Moura, 2010. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Global Inflation Model," Kiel Working Papers 1666, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1666
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global inflation; conditional heteroskedasticity; inflation forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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