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The agricultural and the democratic transitions. Causality and the Roundup model

Author

Listed:
  • Erich Gundlach
  • Martin Paldam

Abstract

Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality

Suggested Citation

  • Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The agricultural and the democratic transitions. Causality and the Roundup model," Kiel Working Papers 1521, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1521
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run growth; transitions; causality and spuriousness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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