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National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises

  • Nils Jannsen

Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. We first re-examine the effects of a housing crises on the business cycle based on historical crises. Then we estimate the international spill-over-effects if several huge industrial countries face a housing crisis simultaneously. While the economic impact of the housing crisis in the United States, from a historical perspective, should have bottomed out at the end of 2008 and the business cycle pattern differed significantly from that in a typical crisis, house prices in Great Britain, Spain and France just started to drop at the end of 2007. If we assume that a typical housing crisis occurs in all of these three countries, international transmission effects then would lead to significant losses of GDP growth in several other countries, notably in Europe

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/national-and-international-business-cycle-effects-of-housing-crises-1/kwp-1510
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1510.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1510
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  1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. DETKEN Carsten & SMETS Frank, . "Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy," EcoMod2003 330700042, EcoMod.
  3. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. PESARAN M. Hashem & SCHUERMANN Til & WEINER Scott, . "Modelling Regional Interdependencies using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," EcoMod2003 330700121, EcoMod.
  6. Dees, S. & Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0661, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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