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National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises

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  • Nils Jannsen

Abstract

Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. We first re-examine the effects of a housing crises on the business cycle based on historical crises. Then we estimate the international spill-over-effects if several huge industrial countries face a housing crisis simultaneously. While the economic impact of the housing crisis in the United States, from a historical perspective, should have bottomed out at the end of 2008 and the business cycle pattern differed significantly from that in a typical crisis, house prices in Great Britain, Spain and France just started to drop at the end of 2007. If we assume that a typical housing crisis occurs in all of these three countries, international transmission effects then would lead to significant losses of GDP growth in several other countries, notably in Europe

Suggested Citation

  • Nils Jannsen, 2009. "National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises," Kiel Working Papers 1510, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1510
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    File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/national-and-international-business-cycle-effects-of-housing-crises-1/kwp-1510
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    Keywords

    Housing Crisis; Business Cycle; International Transmission; Global VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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