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On the Non-Optimality of Information: An Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Anticipated Shocks in the New Keynesian Model

  • Hans-Werner Wohltmann
  • Roland Winkler

This paper compares the welfare effects of anticipated and unanticipated cost-push shocks within the canonical New Keynesian model with optimal monetary policy. We find that, for empirically plausible degrees of nominal rigidity, the anticipation of a future cost-push shock leads to a higher welfare loss than an unanticipated shock. A welfare gain from the anticipation of a future cost shock may only occur if prices are sufficiently flexible. We show analytically that this result holds although unanticipated shocks lead to higher negative impact effects on welfare than anticipated shocks

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/on-the-non-optimality-of-information-an-analysis-of-the-welfare-effects-of-anticipated-shocks-in-the-new-keynesian-model/kwp_1497.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1497.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1497
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  1. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  6. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
  9. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Deep Habits," NBER Working Papers 10261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis, 2009. "Monetary Persistence, Imperfect Competition, And Staggering Complementarities," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 81-106, February.
  11. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  12. repec:zbw:cauewp:7112 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Den Haan, Wouter & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2007. "Anticipated Growth and Business Cycles in Matching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6063, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2008. "What's News in Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 14215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Discussion Papers 07-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  16. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting," NBER Working Papers 3555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, 02.
  19. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," NBER Working Papers 10776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  22. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
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