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The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties

  • Marika Karanassou
  • Hector Sala
  • Dennis J. Snower

This paper argues that there is a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long-run due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay of nominal staggering and money growth. The existence of a downward-sloping long-run Phillips curve suggests the development of a holistic framework that can jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. Hence, we estimate an interactive dynamics model for the US that includes wage-price setting and labour market equations. We then evaluate the inflation-unemployment tradeoff and assess the impact of productivity, money growth, budget deficit, and trade deficit on the unemployment and inflation trajectories during the nineties.

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File URL: https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/the-evolution-of-inflation-and-unemployment-explaining-the-roaring-nineties/KWP%201350%20%28revised%29.pdf
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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Kiel Working Papers with number 1350.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kie:kieliw:1350
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  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2006. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Working Papers 573, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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  8. Charles Bean, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 8(1), pages 57-73, January.
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  12. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "Unemployment Invariance," Working Papers 476, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  13. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  14. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-32, March.
  15. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2006. "Monetary Persistence, Imperfect Competition and Staggering Complementarities," CEPR Discussion Papers 5658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261 Elsevier.
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  23. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2004. "The real effects of money growth in dynamic general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 0412, European Central Bank.
  24. Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
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  26. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?," NBER Working Papers 9835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1326, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  28. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
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  31. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2007. "Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: New Insights on the Nordic Experience," Working Papers 611, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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  34. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
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  37. Antonio Ribba, . "Permanent Disinflationary Effects on Unemployment in a Small Open Economy: Italy 1979-1995," EcoMod2006 272100073, EcoMod.
  38. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2006. "The (Ir)relevance of the NRU for Policy Making: The Case of Denmark," Working Papers 580, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  39. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  40. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
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  43. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
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  46. Juan J. Dolado & J. David López-Salido & Juan L. Vega, 2000. "Unemployment and inflation persistence in Spain: Are there Phillips trade-offs?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 267-291.
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